State of Our Union: Biden’s China policy tolerates excessive risks
Tom Rogan
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Deserving credit for identifying China as the nation’s preeminent threat and for its general policy continuity from the Trump administration, the Biden administration’s China strategy accepts excessive risks.
This concern bears note as China adopts an increasingly hawkish stance toward Taiwan. A rising consensus within the U.S. military now believes that China is likely to attack Taiwan in the near-medium-term future, potentially prior to 2027. Deterring such an attack or, in the worst case, defeating it will require a measure of U.S. military readiness that is lacking. The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war.
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This is not to say President Joe Biden’s China policy is entirely misguided. On the contrary, Biden deserves credit for increasing efforts to prevent advanced semiconductor chips from falling into Chinese hands. A looming agreement with the Philippines to secure U.S. military access to that nation’s northern island is also significant. The administration has also maintained pressure on China in relation to its human rights abuses, debt diplomacy, and, with some unfortunate exceptions, its endemic espionage. Still, an effective China strategy requires more than intent, rhetoric and chip restrictions. It also requires adequate resourcing. And when it comes to the U.S. military, Biden is falling short.
One challenge is the war in Ukraine. While the United States has rightly provided Ukraine with a lot of weapons and supplies, that provision has depleted U.S. stocks. The risk quotient attached to these supplies varies by weapons system. But when it comes to a prospective conflict with China, the greatest U.S. concern attaches to the now multiyear stockpile deficits in man-portable javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-air weapons and the HIMARs rocket artillery system. Biden should have authorized a crash investment program to restore these stocks as soon as possible. Equally problematic is Biden’s deployment of finite high-end war-fighting assets such as Navy destroyers and Air Force F-22 fighter jets to Europe.
At the same time, U.S. warship construction delays are unconscionably persistent. The F-35 fighter jet remains an expensive liability unsuited to war with China. And stockpiles of weapons such as the LRASM anti-ship missile, which would be crucial in any China conflict, aren’t anywhere near large enough to offer confidence that the U.S. military could sustain effective combat power for a multiweek war (let alone a multimonth war).
It would be unfair to blame Biden alone for these failings. Republicans like Reps. John Rutherford (R-FL) and Rob Wittman (R-VA) do the Navy a great disservice by forcing its retention of useless warships, for example. But Biden is the commander in chief. Ultimately, the buck stops with him.
As he ponders his State of the Union address, the president would do well to inject a far greater sense of urgency to preparing the nation for war. That’s the best way both to deter such a war in the first place and to maximize the means of victory in its unfortunate event.
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