From hardcores to moveons: Trump, South Carolina, and Republican opinion
Byron York
FROM HARDCORES TO MOVEONS: TRUMP, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND REPUBLICAN OPINION. Columbia, South Carolina — Former President Donald Trump did something unusual here in South Carolina Saturday night. He held a small event, or at least a relatively small event. Trump is known for holding massive rallies, with 8,000, 10,000, 15,000, or even more attending. His appearance in the main lobby of the state Capitol in Columbia was tiny by comparison, with perhaps 500 people in the room, and maybe a little less than that.
Among the audience, a well-connected political crowd, and among those in the larger South Carolina political world, there was speculation about why Trump chose to go small. No one, even those who once supported Trump and no longer do, doubted that he could have drawn a big crowd in the state. After all, Trump spoke to a huge audience — some estimated it as large as 20,000 — on a cold and windy night in Florence last March as he campaigned for House candidate Russell Fry (R-SC).
Fry went on to win, a Trump midterm success story, and was the first speaker on Trump’s behalf in Columbia on Saturday. In a brief chat before Trump arrived, Fry said the Columbia event simply had a different purpose — to introduce Trump’s South Carolina 2024 campaign leadership team, of which Fry, along with South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), was a part. Two other Republican House members, Reps. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and William Timmons (R-SC), also attended, meaning that half of the state’s six GOP representatives were there.
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But still: Why not go big? I asked Jason Miller, a Trump ally who traveled with the former president on Saturday — there was also a stop in New Hampshire. Going small, going low-key, going conventional just didn’t seem terribly Trumpian. In a text exchange, Miller said the event was intended to put the focus on McMaster and the state leadership team, “whereas a rally would put the focus on the crowd.” “Rallies will start soon enough,” Miller wrote, “but the first priority was to show the big names endorsing on Day One.” When I noted that a big rally conveys political power in a way that nothing else can, Miller responded: “President Trump is the only candidate who can do big rallies. He can do them anytime. But you only get one leadership team rollout.”
Some in the crowd thought Trump might have simply wanted to make a mark in a state where a former governor, Nikki Haley, is expected to announce a Republican presidential bid soon. Indeed, Trump’s event, even though small, underscored one big problem Haley faces. She is about to run for president, and the governor and senior senator of her own state support somebody else. And the junior senator, Tim Scott (R-SC), is thinking about running himself. That is not the stuff of a juggernaut Haley favorite daughter candidacy. It instead shows a candidate who faces a tough slog in the state where she should have the easiest path to victory.
Trump’s South Carolina event sent a similar message to Scott, whose straight-on conservatism (a lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 90, as opposed to Graham’s 79) and his knack for not alienating people have earned him a special place among a lot of GOP supporters. At the Capitol Saturday, one Trump fan said, “I like Nikki Haley, and I love Tim Scott.” Others said some version of the same thing, and in a phone conversation before the event, the retired political scientist and pollster David Woodard called Scott “the most powerful politician in the state.” Scott is also, of course, black, and there is no doubt many Republicans, stung by years of media characterizations of the party as racist, are relieved and grateful to express support for a black, solidly conservative candidate. But in this case, in South Carolina, it’s important to note that they also just like Scott. In any event, the Trump event’s message to Scott was the same as to Haley: Your state’s governor, and your colleague in the Senate, support somebody else.
That was reason enough to hold an event. Still, there’s no doubt that Trump’s small crowd did not convey the strength that the big rallies do. Say you’re a GOP county chairman. Trump holds a rally in your county and 15,000 people attend. He doesn’t have to call you up, sweet-talk you, and lay out his plans for you to know he’s the dominant candidate. You already have 15,000 reasons to know that. Before the Columbia event, one well-connected state politico told me that this time, for 2024, after all his troubles — by the way, nobody mentioned the 2020 election challenge, Jan. 6, or the investigations — Trump can’t just assume people will support him. He will have to do more old-fashioned politicking than before. He will have to call that county chairman, that head of this or that issue group, to ensure their support, when in the past he did not have to make the special effort because he was TRUMP. Maybe the Columbia event was the first evidence of that.
The audience, all by invitation, was made up of just those people Trump needs — the county party chairs, the issue group people, the politically active. Many said they had gotten a call from the party and were offered a few tickets that they could use to attend themselves and give to some of their most active supporters. They weren’t all totally committed Trump 2024 supporters, although some definitely were, and all were Trump 2016 and 2020 voters. Taken together, they were a picture of why it is so hard to gauge the breadth and depth of Trump’s support this time around.
The first thing to remember about the crowd is that it was skewed — everybody there had been invited to, and decided to attend, an event put on by the Trump campaign. But that didn’t mean everyone had made a decision on which candidate to support in 2024. Some had come mostly out of respect for a former president or just plain curiosity. “I’m a Ron DeSantis man myself,” confided one party official as he waited for Trump to arrive. Instead, there were different levels of enthusiasm among even those who were basically pro-Trump. Here are some of the things they were saying:
“New Trump.” A couple of men told me they thought Trump had grown since leaving the presidency, so much so that they called a possible second term “New Trump.” They believed Trump had learned from his four years as president, from all the fights and controversies, and perhaps most of all from his mistakes in picking personnel to staff his White House and administration. That view, of course, goes against the many Trump watchers who say the last thing the 76-year-old Trump would ever do is change. It’s also contrary to those who love Trump exactly as he is and don’t want him to change anything. In any event, it was common among supporters to hope that Trump, were he to win again, could avoid some of the mistakes of his first term.
“The drama.” During Trump’s presidency, it was common to hear some Republicans express concern about his tweeting. They weren’t talking only about tweets, of course — that was their way of saying they sometimes disapproved of Trump’s manner and wished he could smooth down some of his rougher edges. Now, the tweeting complaint has been replaced by “the drama,” as in the idea that GOP voters would like to see Trump’s policies return to the White House but without the controversy and daily sense of chaos that often characterized his presidency. Expressing a desire to avoid “the drama” can indicate a supporter who would like to see Trump serve another term but just be calmer this time. It can also indicate a desire to see another Republican win the White House and restore Trump’s policies without his personality.
Nikki and Tim. No one said anything bad about Haley, the former governor, or Scott, the current senator. That’s just not the way it is done. But many said either Scott or Haley would be an excellent vice presidential pick, and some believe that is what they will be running for, in reality, if they announce presidential campaigns. Of course, saying that diminished them, but it was also a way for loyal Republicans to say something positive about their party’s leaders.
The age question. If he were to win, Trump would be 78 when sworn in for a second, nonconsecutive term. He would then serve until 82, which is the same age President Joe Biden will be when he finishes the current term. Some people in the crowd brought up the age question, and they had mixed opinions about it. Some said it wasn’t a problem. Why? Because in his public appearances, Trump gives the appearance of strength and vigor, while Biden appears feeble. Indeed, in his introduction to Trump, Fry referred to Biden as “a confused old man.” Others were a little more concerned about Trump’s years. One attendee noted that he himself is now in his mid-70s and sees people he knows slowing down. That worried him about a second term: The slowdown will happen to Trump eventually, although it’s not clear when.
DeSantis and a real campaign. Just as the Republican guests spoke positively of Haley and Scott, so too they spoke well of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). For many, his was the only name that came to mind when discussing an alternative to Trump. Certainly they respect what DeSantis has accomplished in Florida. Right now, though, it would probably be best to describe them as DeSantis curious. What is more definite is that Republicans want a true, competitive primary process in 2024. As much as Trump would like to present himself as the incumbent president, he is not. One activist said she wanted to wait until the last minute to decide because there was no reason to declare loyalty to any candidate, including Trump, at this early stage. Others said they would approach the process by starting with Trump and then see what happens. So a lot of Trump’s support is something less than rock-solid.
Trump policies with a new candidate. Graham began his remarks by repeating a line that is often heard among Republicans who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020. They believe that he accomplished a lot in office and respect him for doing it but nonetheless feel that it is time to move on to another candidate. “How many times have you heard, ‘We like Trump policies, but we want somebody new?'” Graham asked. “There are no Trump policies without Donald Trump.” Only Trump, Graham argued, could convincingly threaten NATO while demanding Europe contribute more to its own defense. Only Trump, he said, could convincingly threaten Mexico while demanding it stem the flow of illegal immigrants to the United States. Those accomplishments were the unique personality and style of Trump at work, Graham said. “The good news for the Republican Party [is] there are many talented people for years to come, but there is only one Donald Trump,” Graham concluded. “I say this sincerely: You can talk about his policies, but you could not do what he did.” His remarks were aimed directly at those who would challenge Trump in the GOP primaries.
Hardcores and Moveons. In the big picture, it is tempting to discuss Trump and the Republican primary situation in South Carolina as a battle between Hardcores and Moveons, between Trump’s most loyal supporters and those who appreciate what he accomplished but feel it is time for a new candidate. Certainly there are both in the GOP ranks. But it would be more accurate to see the party as a spectrum, with Hardcores on one end and Moveons on the other. Everyone seems to have a slightly different idea of how they want the story to play out. Some believe so deeply in Trump, and believe conditions in the U.S. are so dire, that they cannot imagine any other Republican becoming president. “If Trump can’t fix us, we’re done,” one man told me with a sense of great seriousness. Others strongly believe a new, different Republican — at the moment, probably DeSantis — could enact Trumpy policies without “the drama,” no matter what Graham said.
A question of belief. Trump is selling himself as not just the best choice but the only choice for Republicans. And he tells them it’s an easy decision to make. In his speech, when he promised to “rebuild the greatest economy in the history of the world,” he added: “I did it before and I’ll do it again, and it won’t even be difficult.” Could any line be more characteristic of the 2016 Donald Trump who dominated the South Carolina primary and went on to win the GOP nomination and the White House? Of course, voters know a lot more now than they knew then. Trump has been president, and they saw how he worked. The question is: Do they still believe?
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