Democrats on defense as 2024 Senate map begins to take shape
Cami Mondeaux
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The 2024 Senate map is beginning to take shape, putting Democrats on the defensive as the party seeks to defend its slim majority in the upper chamber while facing reelection challenges in several reliably red states that backed former President Donald Trump in 2020.
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial Senate seats that could easily shift the current balance of power in the upper chamber.
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Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the advantage of having Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker vote if needed.
As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party only needs to secure two extra Senate seats.
“As hard as it is, this does not mean there isn’t a path for Democrats to keep the majority, albeit a narrow one,” wrote Jessica Taylor, political analyst for the Cook Political Report. “They would likely need to win the presidency and essentially run the table on all of their races, affording to lose only one. They likely would also need a way to expand the map, forcing Republicans to spend money elsewhere to defend incumbents instead of on offense.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its first race ratings for the 2024 Senate playing field, with just three states rated as toss-ups, including Arizona, West Virginia, and Ohio. All three are held by Democrats, with the exception of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who announced in December she’d be leaving the party.
Those ratings put Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in tight positions, as the two Democratic incumbents will need to defend their seats in states that Trump won by 39 and 8 percentage points in 2020, respectively.
Democrats must also defend five other seats the Cook Political Report has rated as “lean Democratic,” including Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Three of those — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are also key presidential battleground states that President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020 after flipping them to blue.
Montana is also likely to be a close race as Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) seeks reelection in the reliably red state Biden lost by 16 points in 2020. However, the Democratic incumbent benefits from a 60% approval rating and has handily been reelected twice since taking office in 2007.
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Elsewhere on the 2024 map, there are 15 seats considered “solid Democrat,” including California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.
Another 10 seats are considered “solid Republican,” including Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and both seats in Nebraska. One Senate seat, held by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), is considered “likely Republican.”